The next decade will not be defined by one technology alone, but by scenarios that evolve step by step. Five forces of transformation – Extended Reality, Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things, Cyber Resilience, and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) – are already reshaping how industries operate. In insurance, these technologies are coming together through three evolving scenarios: Assisted, Adaptive, and Autonomous. Each stage represents a fundamentally different way to think about protection, risk, and trust in an increasingly connected world.

Assisted – The New Baseline

In the Assisted stage, digital technologies enhance traditional processes without fundamentally changing the underlying model of insurance. Extended Reality makes remote inspections easier, enabling claims adjusters to assess water damage or accident sites without being physically present. AI is used to classify documents, triage submissions, or provide standardized chatbot conversations. IoT sensors are increasingly present in cars and homes, but most often serve as monitoring tools rather than real-time triggers. Cyber resilience is applied mainly to safeguard IT infrastructure and regulatory compliance. Distributed ledgers are tested for document verification or fraud prevention, but rarely embedded into core processes. The customer experience feels faster, simpler, and more accessible – yet still transactional and reactive.

To make Assisted insurance work, insurers must digitize core workflows, invest in modern channels, and embed basic automation at scale. Hippo distributes leak detectors and smoke alarms to home owners, reducing risks while still tied to traditional policies. Lemonade has become a poster child for this stage by streamlining claims through bots and AI-powered workflows. The impact is tangible: costs go down, processes accelerate, customers appreciate 24/7 service. But the strategic reality is clear. Assisted is no longer a differentiator – it has become the new baseline. Insurers that stop here risk being commoditized in a crowded, digital-first marketplace.

Adaptive – Where the Real Shift Happens

The Adaptive stage marks the true transformation point, where technologies no longer operate in isolation but begin to reinforce one another. Insurance in this world is contextual, personalized, and continuously responsive. Extended Reality moves from static remote inspections to immersive collaboration, allowing customers and experts to document damages in real time and increase accuracy. AI evolves beyond task automation into predictive intelligence – anticipating risks, tailoring communication to each customer’s situation, and even guiding them through stressful events. IoT becomes the nervous system of adaptive coverage: smart homes, connected cars, and industrial sensors feed continuous data streams that adjust premiums, coverage, and risk management dynamically. Cyber resilience becomes a living product, offering customers not only financial coverage but also real-time monitoring and instant response. Distributed ledgers finally realize their potential, creating trusted, tamper-proof networks between insurers, brokers, service providers, and clients.

To operate in the Adaptive scenario, insurers need to master more than technology. They must earn customer trust for continuous data sharing, build orchestration layers that connect multiple systems and partners, and embrace a cultural shift from episodic transactions to ongoing engagement. First examples are already visible: Metromile, now part of Lemonade, pioneered pay-per-mile motor insurance using telematics to dynamically adjust premiums to real driving behavior. In health, Vitality has built an ecosystem around wearables, rewarding customers for healthier habits with lower premiums and lifestyle benefits. In Asia, Ping An’s health ecosystem integrates prevention, treatment, and insurance in real time – turning protection into a living service. The payoff is significant. Insurance moves beyond efficiency gains and price competition into real value creation. Products transform into adaptive services that feel relevant, personal, and proactive. This is the pivotal phase where insurers can move beyond efficiency and start reshaping protection.

Autonomous – The Horizon Ahead

The Autonomous stage represents the long-term horizon, where insurance becomes fully invisible and self-activating. Here, technologies converge into systems that operate seamlessly in the background. Extended Reality creates digital twins of insured assets – buildings, fleets, evenentire cities – that update continuously with sensor data. AI shifts from predicting to preventing, dispatching maintenance or triggering interventions before failures occur. IoT provides ubiquitous awareness, connecting every asset,every environment, and every transaction into a continuous risk model. Cyber resilience functions like an autonomous immune system, detecting threats, responding instantly, and adapting coverage on the fly. Distributed ledgers eliminate friction by enabling instant, multi-party settlements without human intervention. Insurance, in this scenario, is no longer purchased or managed – it is simply experienced as a protective layer embedded in life and business.

Reaching this horizon requires more than technological readiness. It demands regulatory clarity, ecosystem-level integration, and customer trust in autonomous decision-making. Pilots already hint at what is possible: predictive maintenance that prevents heating failures before families lose hot water, blockchain experiments enabling instant payouts after storms, or cyber systems that automatically neutralize threats. Yet full orchestration remains aspirational. Human judgment, legal frameworks, and societal acceptance still form barriers. For most insurers, Autonomous is a vision beyond 2030 – but one that sets the direction today. Preparing for this world means investing in modular, interoperable systems and building the governance structures to manage them responsibly. Insurers that start laying the foundations now will be positioned to lead once the horizon comes into view.

Why This Matters for Insurers

These three scenarios are not separate choices – they are stages in an evolution. Assisted defines the present baseline. Autonomous defines the horizon. But Adaptive is the pivotal phase where insurers can move beyond efficiency and start reshaping protection. The shift from Assisted to Adaptiveis already underway, and it is here that contextual, proactive, and connected protection comes to life. For a deeper dive into what is driving this shift to Adaptive – which technological capabilities are required, and how insurers can translate them into tangible value for both customers and the business – we recommend reading our InsurShift report (The InsurShift).

The lesson is clear: technology alone will not determine success. Insurers need to understand evolving customer needs, embed data and AI into every journey, and orchestrate ecosystems built on trust. Those who see Adaptive as their target – and who prepare for Autonomous – will be READY fort he future of insurance tomorrow.